Climate Change Worsens Drought in the Fertile Crescent
Did you know that the Middle East’s Fertile Crescent is currently facing one of the most severe droughts in its history? And guess what? Climate change has made it even worse. Let’s dive into the details.
The Impact of Rising Temperatures
Rising temperatures, caused by human greenhouse gas emissions, are the main culprit behind the ongoing drought in Syria, Iraq, and Iran. According to a new analysis from the science consortium World Weather Attribution, the heat has made the drought 25 times more likely to occur in Syria and Iraq, and about 16 times more likely in Iran, compared to a world without global warming. In fact, the current drought is classified as “extreme” according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. However, if it weren’t for human-caused climate change, it wouldn’t have crossed the drought threshold at all.
A Grim Future Ahead
The Fertile Crescent, which was once the birthplace of irrigation and farming, is now facing historic water shortages and agricultural failures. And unfortunately, these events will only worsen as temperatures continue to rise.
According to the analysis, severe droughts can be expected about once a decade in Syria and Iraq, and twice a decade in Iran, in the current climate where global temperatures have already risen by more than 1 degree Celsius over the last 150 years. If global warming reaches 2 degrees, the frequency of droughts will likely double.
The Science Behind the Analysis
The study combines historical climate data and climate models to determine the extent to which global warming has influenced the drought. While there wasn’t a clear signal of global warming in the region’s precipitation patterns, there was a strong influence on rising temperatures. High heat causes more water to evaporate from the landscape, making droughts more likely and intense.
The Human Toll
The multiyear drought has had a devastating impact on vulnerable populations. In Syria, after more than a decade of conflict, over 12 million people are currently facing hunger, with nearly 3 million more at risk of food insecurity. Drought has also driven up the prices of essential resources like food, water, and energy, making the need for clean and reliable water supplies even more urgent.
In Iraq, where decades of conflict have already taken a toll, more than 1 million people are still internally displaced, and as many as 3 million people require humanitarian assistance. Climate change and environmental degradation have only worsened the situation, with over 55,000 people in central and southern Iraq being displaced between 2016 and 2022 alone. It’s clear that urgent action is needed to address the impacts of climate change and prevent further devastation in the Fertile Crescent.
Photo: Freepik.com
